Vast majority of truck-driving jobs are not under threat from automation
Several reasons account for our differing opinion. First, the number of truck drivers that can be potentially affected by automation is fewer than many have assumed, because of misunderstandings about the nature of the occupational classification system. Second, although the occupational designation of heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver makes the primary task of the job—driving—apparent, it is important to note a number of non-driving tasks required of truck drivers, many of which are less susceptible to automation. Third, and most important, the requirements of autonomous vehicle technology, combined with complex regulations over how trucks can operate in the United States, imply that certain segments of trucking will be easier to automate than others. Though we speculate on the possible impact of autonomous trucking, a good deal of research remains to pinpoint potential impacts. We estimate that between 300,000 and 400,000 workers are currently employed as heavy truck drivers in the long-haul segment of trucking, the segment most likely to adopt level 4 automation. While level 4 automation will inevitably displace drivers, it will not come close to eliminating the need for all drivers. A careful general equilibrium analysis of the impact on labor must incorporate operational considerations, including the potential for a modal shift from rail to trucking, potential changes in the vehicles used for first- and last-mile transportation, the considerable amount of non-driving work currently performed by drivers, the past and current employment practices and institutions that affect labor hours and pay in trucking, as well as that gauge the impact the introduction of new technology into trucking and other industries will have on the supply of truck drivers.
Truck-Driving Jobs: Are They Headed for Rapid Elimination? [Maury Gittleman and Kristen Monaco/Sage Publications] (via Science Daily)