The malaise LED overheated investment in overcapacity
Affected by multiple factors, the LED chip, package, to the application price since the beginning of continuous decline, the average fell more than 20 percent in the first seven months of overcapacity worry has become entrepreneurs topics of greatest concern, while the LED industry chain stage overheated investment has begun to show.
Sapphire substrate overheated investment in the most serious
Since the beginning of the LED chip prices decline more than two applications market growth less than expected, many companies bear the huge pressure on the shipping, the chip is almost on the pounds sold. "An LED chip maker, told reporters yesterday admitted that Sadly, this is just the beginning.
LED Engineering Research Institute statistics show that from January to July this year, the price of the 2-inch sapphire substrate from the beginning up to $ 35 / piece, down to the 13-15 U.S. $ / piece, with an average decrease of more than 50%; LED chip The average price of 25%, the largest price cut of 42%; LED packaging average price of 23%, the largest price cut of 37%; the average price of LED applications up to 21%.
LED sapphire substrate overheated investment in the most serious, epitaxial silicon, packaging relative excess capacity, LED applications overall performance is better. "Xiao-Fei Zhang pointed out that the competing efforts of governments around the preferential subsidy policy, from January to July 2011, the Chinese mainland MOCVD increase in the number of over 200. 2012 LED chip production capacity is expected to reach 10 times that of 2010.
According to statistics, mainland China LED epitaxial chip planning a total investment of $ 183.5 billion, 73.5 billion under construction project planning; planning MOCVD equipment, the scale of 4519, 1642 units under construction in the project planning, the actual ownership of 543 units. Last year, Yangzhou, Wuhu and other local governments have large-scale subsidies for MOCVD equipment, to expand the industrial scale of the LED chip; but at the same time, the increase in the applications market is unsatisfactory.
Aspects of the application, the backlight has been regarded as the main driving force in promoting the LED application, and nearly two quarter panel makers lowered the shipment plan. Senior analysts believe that the fourth quarter of 2010, early 2011, in the first quarter and the second LED-backlit TV inventory is high and sales slow, thus reducing the LED backlight market demand.
China manufacturers are also facing the same problem. According to to Zhanyi Ren, secretary general of the Taiwan Optoelectronic Semiconductor Industry Association, the industry boom driven by the LED backlight TV does not continue; If the backlight does not support capacity, and hope that the lighting can drive; but the current situation, but also need to LED lighting products prices are more competitive, or the introduction of appropriate policies to stimulate in order to effectively wake up this market.
"With the release of capacity in the second half of the companies will face a more severe price challenges, short-term overcapacity. Ruifeng power (300,241 shares), chairman Gong Weibin.
Advantages and disadvantages of the "price war"
The industry generally believe that the price war will accelerate the industry reshuffle, out of part of the small and medium-sized enterprises, the market share of more concentrated to the leading enterprises, which is even more evident in the package link.
According to Xiao-Fei Zhang, LED package, the number of business failures was significantly higher than in previous years significantly reduced the number of new enterprises, and most of the LED packaging enterprises gross margin decreased significantly, the total investment of more than 20% lower than in 2010. LED packaging companies risk resistance minimum earnings compared with the LED packaging companies in more than 90 percent in 2010, the proportion of loss-making enterprises will be improved significantly; addition is expected there will be 10% of businesses forced to close. "He said.
LED investment, some companies have been more prudent. Shares the same side (600,100, stock it) vice president Lianghai told reporters that the investment of the same side in the field of LED does not exceed 20% of the assets, the follow-up depending on market conditions, decided to invest or not; At the same time, the company is also the industrial chain on the overall layout of some considerations.
Gong Weibin, price competition for enterprises, is very suitable to express the difference of the time. Price war two types of core competencies in the LED manufacturing business stand out, is a leading technology; another is a cost leader. "He said, In this regard, Ruifeng power will be more focus on technology to reduce costs to strive for the premise of not reduce product quality, reduce 30-50% of the dominant cost.
He also pointed out another aspect, the decline in LED prices also promoted the expansion of markets, will lead to LEDs into lighting applications market.
SG Securities analyst pointed out that the context of the LED chip oversupply and more optimistic about the industry chain downstream, especially the future of general lighting market. According to DisplaySearch's latest data, the LED backlight demand in 2013 reached its peak, then the demand will shift to the lighting, forecast 2011 LED lighting usage will grow by 20% compared to 2010.
LED Engineering Research Institute data also pointed out that LED applications, the enterprise's gross profit margin declined, but the overall scale of production is growing faster, landscape lighting and general lighting products. "Thanks to the growth of sales volume, good overall profitability in 2010, the proportion of loss-making enterprises will be a substantial reduction." Xiao-Fei Zhang said.
Xiamen LED Promotion Center Kaijun pointed out that in the current market situation, companies must respond quickly to the market's high growth alone is no way out, we must integrate the resources to form a joint force. Ruifeng power, Zhejiang Sunshine Enterprises, said at yesterday's forum on the establishment of the patent pool, talent and cooperation agreement.
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