+Do Not Follow The Crowd+
Profit/Loss records in newspapers like the RP (Racing Post) for things like trainer at the track, do not take into account whether or not their was a 33/1 winner, which certainly distorts the real picture, so becareful. A comparison of strike rate to profit, can offer you a general perception, but it still doesn't give you the whole picture.
Trainer trends, especially at a few tracks are typically worth following, however, the winners to runners ratio is rarely worth bothering with because of the effort involved, and all for not much return at the close of the year. One other snag with doing this, is that the bookmakers generally know about these statistics as well these days, and so compensate for it in the odds. However saying that, you can still receive good odds on some by using the betting exchanges.
When researching for an edge, first of all run your concept through a few old copies of the RP, or the RP website. One notable point to remember is that if the selections you are coming up with are strongly tipped in the papers, or worse napped, then you do not have an edge, and the bookmakers will have these covered with lesser odds, as they know they'll be backed whatever the odds the crowd.
Backing against the crowd is something your intellect tells you not to do, but the best betting advice I can offer you in your quest for profits, is to make your selections based on form prior to even looking at the odds, ratings, or tipsters, as these will severely influence your final decision.
When I'm selecting horses, they are singled out due to the way the horse has either impressed me on its last run, or it looks to be clear of the field on form. Only once I am 100% confident will I back the horse. I then adjust my stake as based on its odds and the competition it is up against. I will often back more than 1 in a race if the odds allow it.
I rarely back a horse each-way (EW) unless the odds are sizeable. That means if it is 1/5, 6/4, 7/1, 16/1 I will back it to win, if it shows up as 33/+1 I will think about doing it EW, but unless it is a large field I would normally just stay with the win bet.
It may possibly prove difficult for you to read form without looking at the forecast prices, tipsters, etc., but if you do, you will find yourself backing higher priced winners, and once you have the selection, don't bottle it when you see it is 66/1! You can always have a saver on the favourite (that is, back the favourite to win back the stake on your main bet).
If you must cover your bets EW for safety. Only go for those 20/1+, and place 80% to win, and the remaining 20% on the Tote Place pool or betting exchanges place market. You can use other ratios like 75/25, but in no way go 50/50 which is what the bookies make you do, this is devised to make them a profit.
- Backing the outsider of 3 is a myth. Less than 20% in any given season actually win, and you can use this to your benefit by laying the outsider in every race of 3 runners.
- Winning handicappers running in Group company. Form appears solid doesn't it, but be warned, it is a very considerable gap between handicap, and Group company. I'd say less than 5% actually make the jump to any amount of success, so if you can't get 20/1+ for your horse, let it run without your money. The one's that do win, are at such short prices, you will never recover your losses. If they are short prices, look at laying it.
- Autumn is the period of year you can make a killing from fillies. Fillies improving at this time of year can often run up a winning sequence as they mature. Fillies on ground that has give in it, that show enhanced form generally continue to develop. Basically any fillies that have won there last 2 races, or have improved form ought to be followed until beaten, as this can prove profitable.
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Keith Driscoll runs Win2Win Horse Racing, and supplies extensive betting advice and free tips, systems, reviews, etc, and also has a fully active Betting Advice Forum.
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