Betting Advice - Odds, Staking And Laying - The Basics

By: Kevin Phillips


To keep things straightforward, I constantly advise folk who are dealing with win bets to operate stakes of 3% of their betting bank. This number is proven to work during the long term on profitable horse racing systems, and can enhance the profits of the majority of systems and methods, and ensures a losing run will not kill the bank. 5% is too high, and 10% will see the bank wiped out 99% of the time.

One detail you need to stamp into your head is this, �You should continually do everything in your power to shield the bank�.

Why is this? Well if you lose the bank, you need to begin again, or give up, but the latter option is for folks who wish to proceed through life losing and passing from one pundit to another. Using 3% ought to be fine though throughout a losing run.

However, when your bank is growing, 3% of �100 might seem fine, but if it was �100,000 do you really wish to be risking �3000 on every horse? I sure as hell wouldn�t. I would be reducing the % as the bank increased. So before you begin, set out markers for % decreases in the bank. If the bank drops under one of these points, you keep it set at the recent level.

For illustration, you may possibly say that each time the bank doubles, you drop 0.1% till you reach 2%. This adds in extra security so that during a losing run you do not fall as fast, and also builds in extra protection to the bank putting it at a reduced amount of risk. It is this kind of management that means one gambler will profit, while another loses, even though they both have similar information.

So that is the win bets sorted, but what of this laying you have heard of, when you bet a horse to lose?

This is a bit more complicated, and a lot more risky than win betting. 'Backing a loser is more risky than backing a winner' I hear you ask, have I gone mad? Nope. It is a misconception, and you should understand that selecting a loser and backing a loser for profit are completely separate.

If you back a 10/1 winner with �10, you win �100, and if it loses you will have lost �10. On the laying part, if you lay a 10/1 horse and it lost, you win �10, but if it was to go on to win the race you would lose �100, you are actually betting odds on whilst laying, and in this illustration would be 1/10. So at those odds, if it won, you would need to locate another ten 1/10 on shots just to receive your cash back, and as you can only lay on the betting exchanges, you will be laying 1/10 shots at around 1/12 or more, so the odds are against you before you even begin. If that does not appear bad enough, you additionally have to subtract your commission from any profits.

The bigger the prices when laying, the additional over betting you will do. This is when you lay a horse for more than its true price. An Evens chance at SP (starting price), may go off at 2.04 (1 point is your stake, so it is 1.04). That is 0.04 a over bet if you are laying, but a 0.04 bonus if you are a backer. The bigger the price, the more the over bet on the betting exchanges, which is why you will often see a bookie offering a horse for 50/1, yet on the betting exchanges you may possibly get 300/1. If it won, and you laid it for �10, you would lose �3000, while the bookie would only be paying out �500. Spot the difference?

So be cautious when laying and take all these factors into account.

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