Horse racing systems are generally based on research and statistics. Without them, producing a horse racing system would be a lot more problematical. I use a lot of programs and Internet resources for my own research, but this can be very expensive and run into hundreds each month. So in order to present you a bit of a helping hand I have listed a number of beneficial statistics beneath:
+Odds On Horses+
The vast majority of people seem to think odds on horses are unbeatable or bad value. Neither is true, they get beaten pretty often, and as for value if you get a Pattern winning horse running in a Seller at 1/5, that is potentially decent value.
A quick statistic now:
58% of odds on horses win their races on the flat.
54% win on the AW (All Weather). That 4% difference makes quite a difference, so pay closer attention to short-priced racehorses on this surface.
Splitting all flat races into race type with the percenatge of winning odds on runners:
4+ & all age H/c's - 48%
Specific age H/c's - 53%
Claimers - 56%
2yo Sellers - 56%
3yo Seller - 60%
Other Sellers - 56%
3yo & all age Maidens - 59%
2yo Maidens - 61%
2yo condition races - 62%
3yo & all age cnds races - 57%
All the above based on stats over 5 years.
This will confidently give you a little help in pointing out probable odds on winners.
+5f Sprint Favourites +
In reply to a query I was sent regarding how many odds on favourites win 5f sprints:
Over the last 16 years,
Handicap - 23% - 924/3960 - �376.62 Loss
Claimer/Auction - 35% - 420/1208 - �89.98 Loss
Non-Handicap - 35% - 779/220 - �233.10 Loss
Group or Maiden - 38% - 878/2310 - �175.09 Loss
Sprints are not really good for odds on runners, you ought to be looking at them in 1 mile and upwards races. Also using the betting exchanges will give out better prices on some, but in a number ofcases once you deduct the commission you can have a lower price than the bookies offer.
+Winners last time out - Flat+
Just some quick basic stats for the flat from 10 years of stats:
Last time out winners win 17.45% next time out
Horses that won there last 2 races win 21.52% next time out
Winners of there last 3 win 24.81%
Last 4 win 26.25%
Last 5 win 29.17%
Last 6 win 38.24
+Winners last time out - National Hunt+
Source - 10 years all NH races run under rules. Chances of horse winning next time out:
Last time out winner - 23.61%
Won last 2 - 29%
Won last 3 - 33.89%
Won last 4 - 37.65%
Won last 5 - 39.64%
Won last 6 - 38.53%
Compared to the flat, sequence winners over jumps have a much bigger probability of winning again.
A Nursery is a Handicap race for 2 year olds.
I read a comment in the RFO (Racing and Football Outlook newspaper) from one of their 'tipsters', that 'top weight's in Nurseries are always worth a second look.
Now me being what I am, I wanted to test this wonderful theory, as this is how we learn, so I ran it through my software.
As normal with this type of media information it is shot down in flames.
Over the last 16 years:
Average loss per year: -�28
Only 1996 showed a profit of �36, evidently a stroke of luck.
Not very good is it? Obviously it's the media giving the regular punter the normal worthless myths.
Remember, when you hear media observations such as 'horses for courses', 'always back the outsider of 3', etc, the opposite is more often than not true.
These stats ought to help you develop your method betting, and go towards producing a horse racing system.
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Keith Driscoll supplies Free Horse Racing Software, and extensive betting advice along with a fully active forum.
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